SRN · Racket Sports
Confidential · Internal Investment Memorandum
SRN Valuation Cockpit
Racket-club consolidation — framework, comparables, and investor tracker for the Türkiye padel + tennis platform. Primary-source verified.
The Brief
Arda Saran is consolidating a multi-venue racket-sports portfolio — into Turkey's first investor-ready NewCo.
SRN GRUP HoldCo already exists. Across 12 padel + tennis venues operating today, Arda holds majority or minority partner equity through 3 sub-entities (MAYTS · AGO · ASRN) and 5 direct holdings — running a real ~₺98.6M run-rate Group EBITDA business now. Investor capital enters at HoldCo level and funds: (a) buy-out / roll-over of co-founder equity where partners want exit (Murat MAYTS 20M ₺ disclosed exit floor anchor), (b) growth CAPEX for 4–5 venues opening 2026 (Haliç · Zekeriyaköy · Göktürk Padel + 2 pending), (c) HQ + national tech/booking platform build, (d) WC + clean-up reserves.
Why Arda specifically: uniquely positioned in Turkey to execute this consolidation — former national-team tennis athlete + former national-team coach + proven business operator, with deep long-standing relationships across each partner entity. No outside operator can replicate this cap-table cleanup. Founder-operator moat is category-specific (sport authority), structurally analogous to how Mars Spor Kulübü (MAC Group, $431.6M exit to Benefit Systems May 2025, ~8× disclosed) was built on Yıldırım's premium-consumer + Utku's entertainment-finance combo. SRN's exit lane is broader: Turkish PE + cross-border strategic + global academy operators (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal) MAC could never have accessed.
§ 01
Live position
Synced live to SRN calculator (tab 07)2026 Run-rate Group EBITDA
₺98.6M
🟠 Provisional · pending Arda data
USD-equivalent @ live FX
~$2.35M
@ ₺42 / USD
SRN Entry EV · 6–8× defendable
$14-19M
2026 run-rate basis · validated MAC + Arda
2028 Stabilized EV · 7.5–8.5×
$20-22M
🔴 Scenario · ₺130M EBITDA estimate
Outreach progress
0 / 20 Wave-1
From Investors tab (saved locally)
Phase 0 friends
03
İspahani · Çelebi · Anıl
§ 02
What makes SRN defensible
Founder-operator moat + structural advantages — category-specific, not derivativeFounder authority — unmatched in Turkey
- Arda Saran · former national-team tennis athlete
- · former national-team coach (milli takım antrenörü)
- · proven business operator running real EBITDA today
- This three-way combo does not exist elsewhere in Turkish racket sports — it is the brand premium investors underwrite
Proven, not modeled
- 12 venues across 3 sub-entities + 5 direct holdings (SRN GRUP HoldCo) (post Hilton/5L removal)
- ~₺98.6M run-rate Group EBITDA (~$2.35M USD @ ₺42)
- Real revenue today, not a thesis on future TAM
- EBITDA margins (~60–76%) defended by Arda + cross-checked against MAC Group sector economics
First-mover white space
- No PE-backed Turkish racket-sports platform exists today
- Padel + tennis Turkey ~3–5 years behind Spain / Nordics participation curve
- Category-defining consolidation = take it or watch a competitor take it
- National federation alignment (TTF + Padel TR) → institutional access
Real estate & cluster moat
- 3 metro clusters (İstanbul / Ankara / İzmir) + 1 tourism cluster (Antalya / Bodrum / İzmir)
- Long leases + freehold mix; rent + interest < 22% revenue cap
- Each locked-in venue raises competitor entry cost
- EUR-linked tourism revenue = natural FX hedge against TRY depreciation
Tech-as-multiplier
- National booking + membership platform from day one
- Dynamic pricing, CRM, court utilization analytics
- Multiple-expansion lever: sports-tech adjacency (TrackMan-style margin profile on the SaaS slice)
- Elevates SRN from "11 courts" to "national racket-sports OS"
Exit-lane optionality
- Turkish PE → strategic (MAC blueprint): proven, ~8× disclosed
- Cross-border strategic (Benefit Systems pattern): corporate-pass distribution synergy
- Global academy operators (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal): exit lane MAC could never have accessed — unlocked by Arda's sport authority
- Gulf SWF / pan-EMEA PE: scale + region premium 8–11×
§ 03
Where we are
Verified & shipped
- 🟢MAC Group anchor comp ($431.6M / 8×)
- 🟢Damodaran Turkey ERP 8.5–10.9% USD (corrected from outdated 11–13%)
- 🟢Esas + Actera 2010–2025 joint ownership via Lux SPVs
- 🟢Mediterra Fund III €165M / €8–35m ticket fit
- 🟢CEECAT Fund III €40M EBRD commitment
- 🟢10 disclosed M&A comps (IMG / F45 / Topgolf SEC / etc.)
- v7 cockpit live at srn.koinosventure.studio — SRN-first restructure, KVS branded login (Koinos logo + custom colors)
- Confidence chips + audit ledger on every claim
- 4-tier folder structure + sources_ledger audit trail
Verification backlog
- Padel comp multiples (Padel Nuestro / UAE / Saudi) — currently 🟡 banker
- Fitness banker quotes (Sky Zone / Anytime / Mouratoglou) — 🟡
- Turkish AM/PE ticket sizes (IDA / İş Portföy / Hedef / NBK) — 🟡
- Doğuş fitness/leisure activity timeline — 🟡
- Global academy M&A (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal) — exit-to-whom research
Blocked · awaiting Ali
- Arda's email — Cloudflare Access policy
- Cloudflare API token — wrangler auth for live deploy
- KVS brand kit access — for branded shell
- Arda data: per-court unit economics, CAPEX, cap table, prior offers
- Ali strategic: buyer-archetype yön (Turkish PE / DFI / strategic)
§ 04
The plan — next 14 days
| When | Track | Goal | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Cockpit v7 deployed | srn.koinosventure.studio live, Cloudflare Access (email OTP, Koinos branded). Arda email pending allow-list. | Hüseyin (Arda email from Ali) |
| Now | Verification audit | Promote 🟡 → 🟢 on Tier-1 investor ticket sizes + remaining banker quotes | Hüseyin |
| Wk 1 | Phase 0 — Ali İspahani | MAC anchor validation conversation; seller-side dynamics insight | Ali coordinates |
| Wk 1 | Phase 0 — Sercan Çelebi | Türkven/Enocta dual perspective (M&A advisor + operator) | Ali coordinates |
| Wk 1 | Phase 0 — Didem Anıl | CEECAT fit validation + warm intros to CEE+TR PE | Ali coordinates |
| Wk 2 | Arda data integration | Per-court unit economics + CAPEX → DASHBOARD; rebase 2026 actual + run-rate | Arda → Hüseyin |
| Wk 2 | Vertical/exit research | Global academy M&A (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal) verified pass | Hüseyin |
| Wk 3+ | Phase 1 prep | IM draft v0, valuation_comps v4 post-Phase-0, investor target list re-prioritized | Hüseyin → Ali review |
§ 05
Audit transparency — corrections from this session
● Self-corrections made
- Turkey ERP: "11–13%" → Damodaran current 8.5–10.9%
- Cost of equity USD: "14–18%" → 13–17% (math)
- Esas Holding: "doesn't own MACFit" → "Esas + Actera joint 2010–2025"
- Topgolf "$3.9–4B EV" → "$1.987B equity in merger; $3.9–4B is combined market cap"
- Solidcore "Kohlberg 2020 ~10–12x" → "Kohlberg 2023 founder share sale; L Catterton 2024 at $600–700M"
- MAC 2010 entry "$80–100M est." → removed (MENA Capital exit terms undisclosed)
- FX ₺30/$ default → ₺42/$ (Trading Economics current)
● Still requires drill-down
- Tier-1 investor ticket sizes — most still 🟡 trade-press
- Padel M&A multiples (private; sector practice only)
- Fitness chain banker quotes (Sky Zone, Altitude, Anytime, Mouratoglou)
- 2028 stabilized EBITDA ₺130M scenario — 🔴 framework
- EMEA failure case attributions — pattern level not deal level
- MAC playbook club count year labels (chart-digitized, not officially dated)
Discipline reference: every numeric claim on this cockpit traces to
02_DataRoom/valuation_research/sources_ledger.md. 3-source test, confidence-labeled. Self-corrections are the discipline working, not failing.
The Anchor · Single Disclosed Turkish Comp
MAC Group / MACFit acquisition 🟢 Disclosed
Benefit Systems S.A. (Polish-listed) acquired 100% of Mars Spor Kulübü ve Tesisleri A.Ş. from Actera Group + Esas Holding consortium (via Luxembourg SPVs Vector Capital S.à r.l. + Odyssey S.à r.l.). Closed 7 May 2025.
Total close price
$431.6M
$420M + 7% accrued + $1.5M LB
2024 Revenue
$112M
PLN 446M, disclosed
2024 EBITDA
$50M
excl. IFRS16 · 44.6% margin
EV / EBITDA
~7.8 – 8.6×
Round anchor: ~8×
Sites
121
80 İST · 14 ANK · 9 İZM
Members (B2C)
305K
+ 1.4M digital
This is the disclosed Turkish primary-source anchor. SRN's defensible exit case = ~8× EV/EBITDA, citing MAC precedent — not generic banker quotes.
↗ RB 14/2025 signing ↗ Paksoy (sell-side)
↗ RB 14/2025 signing ↗ Paksoy (sell-side)
§ 01
Defendable EV / EBITDA bands for SRN (USD)
Anchored on MAC precedent for upper-band; Turkish PE consumer band for lower-band. See
00_synthesis/valuation_comps.md for derivation.| Tier / asset state | EV / EBITDA | Anchor logic |
|---|---|---|
| MAC precedent — mature, scaled, formalized $50M EBITDA, 121 sites, branded multi-tier (MAC Fit + MAC One + MAC Studio) |
~8× 🟢 | Single disclosed Turkish primary-source comp; 2025 closing |
| Mature scaled platform — defensible 10+ open sites, 3yr audited, formalized, branded |
7.0 – 8.5× 🟠 | MAC-adjacent but smaller scale → mild haircut |
| Ramping platform (Opens 2026 sites) Mixed maturity, growth >30% YoY |
5.0 – 7.0× norm. 🟠 | Or 0.8–1.3× revenue; ramp visible |
| Pipeline / pre-EBITDA | 5.0 – 7.0× site 🟠 | Per-site economics or build-cost-plus |
| Post-clean-up re-rate (3-year horizon) | 7.5 – 9.0× 🟠 | Reclaims country + informality discount; lands at MAC band |
| Strategic / Gulf / pan-EMEA exit | 8.0 – 11.0× 🟠 | Above MAC if buyer is pan-regional (e.g., Mubadala, KKR, global academy) |
§ 02
MAC playbook → SRN parallel 🟢
MAC's 2007 founding → 2010 PE entry → 2025 $431.6M exit is the template. SRN is at MAC's pre-2010 stage.
| MAC milestone | Year | Confidence + note | SRN parallel (target) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mars Entertainment founded (Yıldırım + Utku) | 2001 | 🟡 Trade-press | — |
| Mars Spor (gym OpCo) carved into MAC brand | 2007 | 🟡 Trade-press | 2024 — pre-consolidation founder operator |
| MENA Capital Holding (Kuwait) 55% prior majority owner exits; Actera + Esas Holding take ownership | Sept 2010 | 🟢 Event disclosed; 🔴 Value undisclosed | 2026–27 — SRN $15–50M raise |
| Cinema-side exit to CJ CGV $800M total | Jun 2016 | 🟢 ~12× EBITDA per trade-press | Could equal partial monetization / strategic JV milestone |
| Multi-brand architecture (MACFit + MAC One + MAC Studio + Nuspa) | 2010–2024 | 🟡 Inferred | Years 3–7: padel + tennis + premium tier + boutique |
| Strategic exit — Benefit Systems acquires for $431.6M total / ~8× EBITDA | May 2025 | 🟢 Disclosed | 2032–2035 — sale to global academy / Benefit-style / pan-EMEA buyer |
The "USD MOIC over 15-year hold" claim that appeared in earlier drafts has been removed — depended on undisclosed 2010 entry value. Per SRN-27, that's not computable from public data and must not be presented as fact. The verified anchor remains the May 2025 exit at ~8×.
§ 03
Turkey discount stack 🟢
EU baseline → Turkey country risk → sector → cash/informality. Damodaran Feb 2026: Turkey ERP 8.89% (rating) / 8.56% (CDS). Earlier "11–13%" was outdated.
Multiple build-down: EU baseline → SRN entry → MAC exit
USD EV/EBITDA, mid-point of each range. Hover bars for context.
§ 04
Reference points
★ MAC Group (May 2025) 🟢
~8×
$431.6M / $50M EBITDA disclosed
EU stable multi-site leisure 🟡
8 – 11×
Gyms, experiential, bowling
UAE padel chains 🟡
8 – 11×
10–20 court portfolios, banker quote
Turkey ERP (Damodaran Feb 2026) 🟢
8.5 – 10.9%
USD; Feb 2026 = 8.89%
Turkish B2C consumer PE 🟡
5 – 8×
Pre-MAC framework; revised up by MAC comp
IMG Academy (outlier) 🟢
~31×
$1.25B / EQT 2023; do NOT anchor
§ 01
Named M&A / growth-equity deals — confidence-labeled
Each row tagged with confidence tier. 🟢 means primary source confirms. 🟡 means trade-press/banker. 🟠 means inferred. Sources in
10_comparables/ and sources_ledger.md.
§ 01
Investor outreach tracker
Status saved to browser · 55 entriesStatus changes saved automatically to your browser (localStorage). Notes editable inline. Confidence chips on each row.
— shown
| Wave | Name | Type | Ticket | Fit | Pitch angle | Status | Notes |
|---|
§ 01
Phase 0 — Insider feedback before formal outreach
Three trusted friends with direct relevant deal experience. Their feedback recalibrates the framework, pitch, and investor fit before anything formal goes out.
Ali İspahani 🟢
Ex-Actera · MAC deal insider
Direct seller-side insight into the MAC Group / MACFit deal ($420M / ~8× to Benefit Systems, May 2025). Actera was beneficial co-seller via the Luxembourg SPVs. Ali İspahani has 15-year visibility into how the Esas/Actera consortium ran the platform from 2010 entry to 2025 exit.
Ask: Validation of MAC as anchor comp; seller-side dynamics; what the buyer paid up for vs the discount stack; how Turkish PE thinks about exit multiples post-clean-up.
Sercan Çelebi 🟢
Türkven / Enocta sell-side advisor · Ex-Enocta CEO
Dual perspective: Sell-side advisor on Türkven's Enocta exit (later acquired by Bain), then served as Enocta CEO post-acquisition. Both M&A process insight + operator reality.
Ask: Türkven's mid-market consumer thesis; how to structure governance for PE entry; post-PE operator experience — what surprised Enocta operationally.
Didem Anıl 🟢
CEECAT Capital
CEECAT Fund III insider. CEECAT Fund III has €40M EBRD commitment + €200M target, mandates growth-stage Türkiye + CEE mid-market consumer/services. Direct line on whether SRN is on their actual sourcing radar.
Ask: SRN fit with CEECAT mandate; what they need to see in a teaser; warm intros into other CEE+TR PE.
Sequencing: Phase 0 over 1–2 weeks → recalibrate artifacts → Phase 1 (Mediterra, IDA, İş Portföy, EBRD, Doğuş, Benefit Systems TR).
§ 01
EMEA case study lessons
6 success · 4 failure10 cases — 6 success, 4 failure. Click any card to expand. Apply-to-SRN tagline at the bottom of each.
§ 01
SRN application — implied EV calculator
Live · adjusts Executive Summary KPIsInputs sourced from current DASHBOARD (2026-05-19) 🟠 Provisional. Adjust multiplier + FX to stress test.
Inputs
59.3
98.6
130
42.0
6.0x
8.0x
0%
Entry EV on 2026 Actual
$11.9 – $15.8M
59.3M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 30.0 (no discount)
Entry EV on 2026 Run-rate ← primary anchor
$19.7 – $26.3M
98.6M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 30.0 (no discount)
2028 Stabilized EV (pre-DCF discount)
$26.0 – $34.7M
130M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 30.0
2028 EV @ MAC band (7.5–8.5×)
$32.5 – $36.8M
130M TRY × 7.5–8.5x ÷ 30.0; anchored on MAC ~8x
Linear status
↗ SRN-9 Calibrate valuation multiples — comment + In Review pending Linear re-auth
↗ SRN-13 2026A reconciliation engine — feeds Actual figure
↗ SRN-16 Dashboard hygiene — feeds Run-rate figure
↗ SRN-13 2026A reconciliation engine — feeds Actual figure
↗ SRN-16 Dashboard hygiene — feeds Run-rate figure
Live Linear refresh + DASHBOARD sync coming once Linear MCP re-authenticated. 2028 stabilized estimate is 🔴 framework — pending Arda unit-economics data.
The Ask · Cash Injection vs Limited Cash-Out
How much we raise · How it's used · For what equity.
$15M Phase 1 raise · tranched for ~35% equity in SRN GRUP NewCo @ $28M pre-money (~7.5–8× post-consolidation EBITDA, MAC-anchored).
~$12–13M (≈85%) CASH INJECTION — new shares → into NewCo: Growth CAPEX (4-5 venues 2026), HQ + national tech/booking platform, brand + national marketing, WC + clean-up reserves, Phase 2 expansion buffer (5-10 venues 2027-2029, staged at KPI gates).
~$2–3M (≈15%) LIMITED CASH-OUT — existing shares bought from partners electing exit: Murat MAYTS 39% @ 20M ₺ disclosed anchor + MAYTS Others 21.5% pro-rata + ASRN partner 50% + Conrad other 60% + Torba 50% (Fadi?). Per-partner breakdown in this tab.
~$2–3M (≈15%) LIMITED CASH-OUT — existing shares bought from partners electing exit: Murat MAYTS 39% @ 20M ₺ disclosed anchor + MAYTS Others 21.5% pro-rata + ASRN partner 50% + Conrad other 60% + Torba 50% (Fadi?). Per-partner breakdown in this tab.
§ 01
Per-partner buyout offers
Cross-checked against master Use of Proceeds + SRN-9 frameworkAuthoritative cap structure:
02_DataRoom/Entities/SRN_org_chart_2026-05-19.md. Sheet sync: BUYOUT_OFFERS tab.| # | Partner | Entity | Stake | Entity EV basis (₺M) | Implied value (₺M) | Offer (₺M) | USD @ ₺42 | Status | Cross-check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murat Zorluoğlu | MAYTS | 39% | 60 (Arda kafa) | 23.4 | 20.0 | $0.48M | 🟢 Disclosed | 20M @ 39% → implied entity 51M; 60M kafa → EBITDA 7.5–8.6M ✓ |
| 2 | MAYTS Others | MAYTS | ~21.5% | 60 | 12.9 | ~11.0 est | ~$0.26M | ⚪ Pending SRN-4 | Pro-rata to Murat band |
| 3 | Gökhan | AGO | 50% | 45–50 (Arda) | 22.5–25 | TBD — bidirectional | TBD | 🟡 Strategic | Gökhan SATIN ALAN; AGO ~8.3× ≈ MAC anchor ✓. Phase 0 call |
| 4 | ASRN partner X | ASRN | 50% | TBD (ramp) | ~5–15 | TBD | ~$0.12–0.36M | ⚪ Pending SRN-4 | ZK+Göktürk ramping; pending partner ID |
| 5 | Conrad partners | Conrad (direct) | 60% | TBD (post Jul'26) | TBD | 15–30 est | ~$0.36–0.71M | ⚪ Pending SRN-4 + SRN-13 | Conrad Jul'26 transformation raises EBITDA; biggest cost variance |
| 6 | Bostancı partners | BS Padel (direct) | 83.5% | TBD | TBD | 0 (status quo) — 5 | $0 — ~$0.12M | ⚪ Strategic question | SRN only %16.5; stay minority vs buy-up — not central |
| 7 | Torba Fadi(?) | Torba (direct) | 50% | TBD (seasonal) | TBD | 3–5 est | ~$0.07–0.12M | ⚪ Pending SRN-4 | Seasonal 4mo; small EBITDA |
| 8 | — | BTC (direct) | SRN 100% | — | — | 0 | 0 | ✅ Clean | No partner |
| 9 | — | BTA (direct) | SRN 100% | — | — | 0 | 0 | ✅ Clean | No partner |
| TOTAL CASH-OUT (mid-case, ₺M): | 70–130 | $1.7 — $3.1M | ✓ Matches | Master UoP secondary line 70–130M ₺ ✓ | |||||
§ 02
Cross-check vs master Use of Proceeds
Total ask
$15M
Phase 1, tranched
Cash injection (primary)
~$12-13M
~85% · into NewCo (CAPEX + HQ + WC + Phase 2)
Limited cash-out (secondary)
~$2-3M
~15% · to partners electing exit
Equity dilution
~35%
$28M pre-money post-consolidation
§ 03
Use of Proceeds breakdown
| Line | Low (₺M) | Mid (₺M) | High (₺M) | Mid (USD @ ₺42) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyouts (secondary) | 70 | 100 | 130 | $2.4M | Murat 20M anchor + others; see §01 table |
| Phase 1 CAPEX (4-5 venues 2026) | 45 | 60 | 75 | $1.4M | AGO 15M benchmark applied to HA/ZK/Göktürk + 2 |
| HQ + tech build (initial) | 25 | 35 | 50 | $0.8M | Booking platform + CRM + brand |
| WC + clean-up reserves | 30 | 40 | 50 | $1.0M | Audit + legal + tax clean-up |
| Phase 2 expansion (2027-2029, staged) | 100 | 200 | 400 | $4.8M | 5-10 new venues at KPI gates |
| HQ scale + brand build (Phase 2) | 30 | 60 | 110 | $1.4M | National marketing + ops scale |
| TOTAL (₺M) | 300 | 495 | 815 | $11.8M mid | Range maps to $7-19M USD raise band |
Mid-case total ~$11.8M USD < headline $15M ask — provides ~25% buffer for negotiation/over-cap on Murat, ASRN, Conrad partners, plus contingency. Range scales up to ~$22M USD high-case for aggressive Phase 2 (15-20 venues). Tranching ($8M close + $7M KPI-gated) lets investor stage commitment.
§ 04
Open data needs
Pending Arda (SRN-4)
- Cap table % per entity (9 sorular gönderildi)
- MAYTS Others 21.5% breakdown + their exit preferences
- Conrad other 60% identity + sizing
- Bostancı 83.5% breakdown (Saffet/Baran/Gökhan?)
- Torba 50% — Fadi confirm + identity
- ASRN other 50% partner ID
- FB Fabrika resmi yapı (org chart'ta yok)
Strategic decisions (Ali + Arda)
- AGO Gökhan direction — we buy his 50% or he buys our 50%
- Bostancı strategic — stay %16.5 minority vs buy-up vs divest
- Phase 0 friend feedback on buyout strategy (İspahani Phase 0 most relevant — MAC seller-side mechanics)
- Tranche 1 vs Tranche 2 split — current $8M + $7M placeholder, refine post-Phase-0