SRN GRUP — Strategic Overview · Koinos Venture Studio

The Brief

Arda Saran is consolidating a multi-venue racket-sports portfolio — into Turkey's first investor-ready NewCo.

SRN GRUP HoldCo already exists. 12-venue portfolio held across multiple legal entities (MAYTS · AGO · ASRN · Conrad · Bostancı + 4 direct holdings under HoldCo) — 8 revenue-generating today, 5 confirmed openings in 2026. Run-rate Group EBITDA ₺50–80M defendable / ~₺98.6M optimistic ceiling 🟠 pending Arda historicals + unit economics. Investor capital enters at HoldCo level and funds: (a) buy-out / roll-over of co-founder equity (Murat MAYTS 20M ₺ disclosed exit floor anchor), (b) growth CAPEX for 5 venues opening 2026 (Haliç · MOI · Torium · Zekeriyaköy · Fabrika Padel Bornova / İzmir + Göktürk Padel pending), (c) HQ + national tech/booking platform, (d) WC + clean-up reserves.

Why Arda specifically: 🟡 Türkiye junior tennis champion across multiple age categories (U10–U18 per founder bio) — tennis from age 4. Founder of Business Tennis Cup (Türkiye's first inter-company tennis tournament) and EveryThink sports events. Proven multi-venue racket-sports operator running today's 12-venue portfolio with long-standing partner relationships across each entity — the hard-to-replicate combination is decorated junior tennis player + sport entrepreneur + multi-venue operator. Comparable structural pattern: MAC Group's exit ($431.6M to Benefit Systems May 2025, ~8× disclosed) was built on category-specific founder authority (Yıldırım's premium-consumer + Utku's finance) — not a one-to-one analog, but the playbook (founder-led consumer roll-up → strategic exit) rhymes. Realistic primary exit lanes: Turkish PE secondary · Benefit Systems-style cross-border strategic · Doğuş-style (D-Marin precedent) local strategic. Upside optionality (low precedent): global academy operators (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal) — partnership/licensing models, treat as upside not anchor.

§ 01

Live position

Synced live to SRN calculator (tab 07)

2026 Run-rate Group EBITDA

₺98.6M

🟠 Provisional · pending Arda data

USD-equivalent @ live FX

~$2.35M

@ ₺42 / USD

SRN Pre-money · 4–6× current (conservative)

$10–15M

🟠 Scale-discounted from MAC 8× anchor · sensitivity → Modeling tab

Tranche 1 Ask · for ~30–45% post-money

$7–10M

🟠 Conservative · T2 ($5–10M, KPI-gated) for ~$15–25M total over 18–24mo

Outreach progress

— / 16 Wave-1

From outreach tracker

Phase 0 friends

İspahani · Çelebi · Anıl

§ 02

The Thesis

Founder-operator combination + structural advantages — category-specific, not derivative

Founder authority

Arda Saran · decorated junior tennis player (U10–U18 Türkiye titles per founder bio) 🟡
· sport entrepreneur — Business Tennis Cup, EveryThink events
· proven multi-venue operator running real EBITDA today
Hard-to-replicate combination: athletic credibility, sport-event entrepreneurship, and operating depth across 12 venues in one principal

Proven, not modeled

12 venues across multiple sub-entities + 4 direct holdings under SRN GRUP HoldCo (after removing 2 underperforming sites)
~₺98.6M run-rate Group EBITDA · $2.35M USD @ ₺42 (optimistic ceiling; ₺50–80M defendable)
Real revenue today, not a thesis on future TAM
Unit economics + margins pending Arda data integration — 🟠 to be triangulated against sector benchmarks (MAC Group disclosed 44.6% EBITDA margin gives a Turkish leisure reference point)

First-mover white space

No dedicated PE-backed Turkish racket-sports consolidator exists today
Padel + tennis Turkey ~3–5 years behind Spain / Nordics participation curve
First-mover position in a fragmented category
National federation alignment (TTF + Padel TR) → institutional access

Real estate & cluster moat

3 metro clusters (İstanbul / Ankara / İzmir) + 1 tourism cluster (Antalya / Bodrum / İzmir)
Long leases + freehold mix; rent + interest < 22% revenue cap
Each locked-in venue raises competitor entry cost
EUR-linked tourism revenue = natural FX hedge against TRY depreciation

Tech-as-multiplier

National booking + membership platform from day one
Dynamic pricing, CRM, court utilization analytics
Multiple-expansion lever: sports-tech adjacency (TrackMan-style margin profile on the SaaS slice)
Elevates SRN from a multi-venue operator to a national racket-sports OS

Exit-lane optionality

Turkish PE → strategic (MAC blueprint): proven, ~8× disclosed
Cross-border strategic (Benefit Systems pattern): corporate-pass distribution synergy
Global academy operators (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal): upside optionality — partnership/licensing models, treat as optional not anchor
Gulf SWF / pan-EMEA PE: scale + region premium 8–11×

§ 03

Audit transparency — corrections made during this build

Self-correction discipline · every numeric claim traces to sources_ledger.md

● Self-corrections made

Turkey ERP: "11–13%" → Damodaran current 8.5–10.9%
Cost of equity USD: "14–18%" → 13–17% (math)
Esas Holding: "doesn't own MACFit" → "Esas + Actera joint 2010–2025"
Topgolf "$3.9–4B EV" → "$1.987B equity in merger; $3.9–4B is combined market cap"
Solidcore "Kohlberg 2020 ~10–12x" → "Kohlberg 2023 founder share sale; L Catterton 2024 at $600–700M"
MAC 2010 entry "$80–100M est." → removed (MENA Capital exit terms undisclosed)
FX ₺30/$ default → ₺42/$ (Trading Economics current)

● Still requires drill-down

Tier-1 investor ticket sizes — most still 🟡 trade-press
Padel M&A multiples (private; sector practice only)
Fitness chain banker quotes (Sky Zone, Altitude, Anytime, Mouratoglou)
2028 stabilized EBITDA ₺130M scenario — 🔴 framework
EMEA failure case attributions — pattern level not deal level
MAC playbook club count year labels (chart-digitized, not officially dated)

Discipline reference: every numeric claim on this cockpit traces to 02_DataRoom/valuation_research/sources_ledger.md. 3-source test, confidence-labeled. Self-corrections are the discipline working, not failing.

The Anchor · Single Disclosed Turkish Comp

MAC Group / MACFit acquisition 🟢 Disclosed

Benefit Systems S.A. (Polish-listed) acquired 100% of Mars Spor Kulübü ve Tesisleri A.Ş. from Actera Group + Esas Holding consortium (via Luxembourg SPVs Vector Capital S.à r.l. + Odyssey S.à r.l.). Closed 7 May 2025.

Total close price

$431.6M

$420M + 7% accrued + $1.5M LB

2024 Revenue

$112M

PLN 446M, disclosed

2024 EBITDA

$50M

excl. IFRS16 · 44.6% margin

EV / EBITDA

~7.8 – 8.6×

Round anchor: ~8×

Sites

121

80 İST · 14 ANK · 9 İZM

Members (B2C, disclosed)

305K

Benefit Systems RB 14/2025

This is the disclosed Turkish primary-source anchor. SRN's defensible exit case = ~8× EV/EBITDA, citing MAC precedent — not generic banker quotes.

↗ RB 14/2025 signing ↗ Paksoy (sell-side)

§ 01

Defendable EV / EBITDA bands for SRN (USD)

Anchored on MAC precedent for upper-band; Turkish PE consumer band for lower-band. See 00_synthesis/valuation_comps.md for derivation.

Tier / asset state	EV / EBITDA	Anchor logic
MAC precedent — mature, scaled, formalized $50M EBITDA, 121 sites, branded multi-tier (MAC Fit + MAC One + MAC Studio)	~8× 🟢	Single disclosed Turkish primary-source comp; 2025 closing
Mature scaled platform — defensible 10+ open sites, 3yr audited, formalized, branded	7.0 – 8.5× 🟠	MAC-adjacent but smaller scale → mild haircut
Ramping platform (Opens 2026 sites) Mixed maturity, growth >30% YoY	5.0 – 7.0× norm. 🟠	Or 0.8–1.3× revenue; ramp visible
Pipeline / pre-EBITDA	5.0 – 7.0× site 🟠	Per-site economics or build-cost-plus
Post-clean-up re-rate (3-year horizon)	7.5 – 9.0× 🟠	Reclaims country + informality discount; lands at MAC band
Strategic / Gulf / pan-EMEA exit	8.0 – 11.0× 🟠	Above MAC if buyer is pan-regional (e.g., Mubadala, KKR, global academy)

§ 02

MAC playbook → SRN parallel 🟢

MAC's 2007 founding → 2010 PE entry → 2025 $431.6M exit is the template. SRN is at MAC's pre-2010 stage.

MAC milestone	Year	Confidence + note	SRN parallel (target)
Mars Entertainment founded (Yıldırım + Utku)	2001	🟡 Trade-press	—
Mars Spor (gym OpCo) carved into MAC brand	2007	🟡 Trade-press	2024 — pre-consolidation founder operator
MENA Capital Holding (Kuwait) 55% prior majority owner exits; Actera + Esas Holding take ownership	Sept 2010	🟢 Event disclosed; 🔴 Value undisclosed	2026–27 — SRN $15–50M raise
Cinema-side exit to CJ CGV $800M total	Jun 2016	🟢 ~12× EBITDA per trade-press	Could equal partial monetization / strategic JV milestone
Multi-brand architecture (MACFit + MAC One + MAC Studio + Nuspa)	2010–2024	🟡 Inferred	Years 3–7: padel + tennis + premium tier + boutique
Strategic exit — Benefit Systems acquires for $431.6M total / ~8× EBITDA	May 2025	🟢 Disclosed	2032–2035 — sale to global academy / Benefit-style / pan-EMEA buyer

The "USD MOIC over 15-year hold" claim that appeared in earlier drafts has been removed — depended on undisclosed 2010 entry value. Per SRN-27, that's not computable from public data and must not be presented as fact. The verified anchor remains the May 2025 exit at ~8×.

§ 03

Turkey discount stack 🟢

EU baseline → Turkey country risk → sector → cash/informality. Damodaran Feb 2026: Turkey ERP 8.89% (rating) / 8.56% (CDS). Earlier "11–13%" was outdated.

Multiple build-down: EU baseline → SRN entry → MAC exit

USD EV/EBITDA, mid-point of each range. Hover bars for context.

§ 04

Reference points

★ MAC Group (May 2025) 🟢

~8×

$431.6M / $50M EBITDA disclosed

EU stable multi-site leisure 🟡

8 – 11×

Gyms, experiential, bowling

UAE padel chains 🟡

8 – 11×

10–20 court portfolios, banker quote

Turkey ERP (Damodaran Feb 2026) 🟢

8.5 – 10.9%

USD; Feb 2026 = 8.89%

Turkish B2C consumer PE 🟡

5 – 8×

Pre-MAC framework; revised up by MAC comp

IMG Academy (outlier) 🟢

~31×

$1.25B / EQT 2023; do NOT anchor

§ 01

Named M&A / growth-equity deals — confidence-labeled

Each row tagged with confidence tier. 🟢 means primary source confirms. 🟡 means trade-press/banker. 🟠 means inferred. Sources in 10_comparables/ and sources_ledger.md.

§ 01

Investor outreach tracker

Internal · status saved to browser · — entries

Operator/advisor tracker for Wave-1/2/3 prioritization. Status changes saved automatically to your browser. Notes editable inline. Confidence chips on each row.

— shown

Wave	Name	Type	Ticket	Fit	Pitch angle	Status	Notes

§ 01

Validation sources — Phase 0 stress-testers

Internal · advisory consultation pre-formal-process

Three trusted reviewers with directly relevant deal experience. Their feedback recalibrates the framework, pitch, and investor fit before anything formal goes out.

Ali İspahani

Ex-Actera · MAC deal insider

Direct seller-side insight into the MAC Group / MACFit deal ($420M / ~8× to Benefit Systems, May 2025). Actera was beneficial co-seller via the Luxembourg SPVs. Ali İspahani has 15-year visibility into how the Esas/Actera consortium ran the platform from 2010 entry to 2025 exit.

Ask: Validation of MAC as anchor comp; seller-side dynamics; what the buyer paid up for vs the discount stack; how Turkish PE thinks about exit multiples post-clean-up.

Sercan Çelebi

Türkven / Enocta sell-side advisor · Ex-Enocta CEO

Dual perspective: Sell-side advisor on Türkven's Enocta exit (later acquired by Bain), then served as Enocta CEO post-acquisition. Both M&A process insight + operator reality.

Ask: Türkven's mid-market consumer thesis; how to structure governance for PE entry; post-PE operator experience — what surprised Enocta operationally.

Didem Anıl

CEECAT Capital

CEECAT Fund III insider. CEECAT Fund III has €40M EBRD commitment + €200M target, mandates growth-stage Türkiye + CEE mid-market consumer/services. Direct line on whether SRN is on their actual sourcing radar.

Ask: SRN fit with CEECAT mandate; what they need to see in a teaser; warm intros into other CEE+TR PE.

Sequencing: Phase 0 over 1–2 weeks → recalibrate artifacts → Phase 1 (Mediterra, IDA, İş Portföy, EBRD, Doğuş, Benefit Systems TR).

§ 01

EMEA case study lessons

6 success · 4 failure

10 cases — 6 success, 4 failure. Click any card to expand. Apply-to-SRN tagline at the bottom of each.

§ 01

SRN sensitivity engine — implied EV calculator

Internal · operator/analyst what-if tool

Inputs sourced from current DASHBOARD (2026-05-19) 🟠 Provisional. Sliders drive only the bands on this tab — the Overview headline anchor ($10–15M pre / $7–10M T1) is intentionally fixed.

Inputs

2026 Actual Group EBITDA (M TRY) 59.3

2026 Run-rate Group EBITDA (M TRY) 98.6

2028 Stabilized EBITDA est. (M TRY) 🔴 130

FX rate (TRY / USD) 42.0

Multiple — low end (×) 6.0x

Multiple — high end (×) 8.0x

Cash / informality discount (%) 0%

Entry EV on 2026 Actual

$8.5 – $11.3M

59.3M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0 (no discount)

Entry EV on 2026 Run-rate ← primary anchor

$14.1 – $18.8M

98.6M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0 (no discount)

2028 Stabilized EV (pre-DCF discount)

$18.6 – $24.8M

130M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0

2028 EV @ MAC band (7.5–8.5×)

$23.2 – $26.3M

130M TRY × 7.5–8.5x ÷ 42.0; anchored on MAC ~8x

2026 Actual feeds from 2026A reconciliation; Run-rate from current operations; 2028 Stabilized estimate is 🔴 framework — pending principal unit-economics data.

The Capital Plan · Cash Injection vs Cash-Out

How much we raise · How it's used · For what equity.

🟠 Working anchor — all numbers pending principal data integration (unit economics, historicals, cap-table reconciliation). Phase 0 stress-test (İspahani / Çelebi / Anıl) may move the band in either direction.

$7–10M Tranche 1 close · ~30–45% post-money equity in SRN GRUP NewCo @ $10–15M pre-money (4–6× current EBITDA, scale-discounted from MAC 8× anchor). Tranche 2 ($5–10M, 12–18mo KPI-gated): Phase 2 expansion at 6–8× post-consolidation. Total Phase 1+2: $15–25M over 18–24 months.

Cash injection (primary, ~$4.5–7.5M of Tranche 1) — new shares → into NewCo: Growth CAPEX (4–5 venues opening 2026), HQ + national tech/booking platform, brand + national marketing, WC + clean-up reserves.

Partner buy-out (secondary, ~$2.5M of Tranche 1) — existing shares bought from partners electing exit. Anchor line: Murat MAYTS 39% @ 20M ₺ disclosed exit floor; MAYTS Others 22% pro-rata; Conrad partner-bundle largest single line (Erhan Bulutçu 50% ≈ 25M ₺); ASRN Sami 50%; bidirectional Gökhan scenarios (AGO + Bostancı) net to either +28M ₺ inflow or +28M ₺ outflow. Per-partner detail in §01 below.

§ 01

Per-partner buyout offers

Cross-checked against master Use of Proceeds + valuation framework

Authoritative cap structure: 02_DataRoom/Entities/SRN_org_chart_2026-05-19.md. Sheet sync: BUYOUT_OFFERS tab.

#	Partner	Entity	Stake	Offer (₺M)	USD @ ₺42	Status	Note
1	Murat Zorluoğlu	MAYTS	39%	20.0	$0.48M	🟢 Disclosed	Arda-anchored exit floor
2	Murat Aslan	MAYTS	15%	~7.7 est	~$0.18M	🟡 Pending	Pro-rata Murat band
3	Tuna Aktuna	MAYTS	5%	~2.6 est	~$0.06M	🟡 Pending	Pro-rata
4	Serkan Demirel	MAYTS	2%	~1.0 est	~$0.02M	🟡 Pending	Pro-rata
MAYTS subtotal — Arda 39% (residual) · Others 22% · Murat Z 39% = 100%			61%	~31.3	~$0.75M	—	Partners electing exit
5	Olivier Van Neste	AGO	13.5%	~6.5 est	~$0.16M	🟡 Pending	Pro-rata @ AGO band
6	Gökhan Can	AGO	36.5%	Bidirectional	—	🟡 Strategic	Scenario A: SRN buys ≈ ₺18M out · Scenario B: Gökhan buys SRN's 50% ≈ ₺25M in
AGO subtotal — Arda/SRN 50% · Olivier 13.5% · Gökhan 36.5% = 100%			50%	—	—	—	Partners electing exit (excl. SRN residual)
7	Sami Beceren	ASRN	50%	~10 est	~$0.24M	🟡 Pending EBITDA	ZK + Göktürk Padel ramping
ASRN subtotal — Arda 50% · Sami 50% = 100%			50%	~10	~$0.24M	—	Partners electing exit (excl. SRN residual)
8	Erhan Bulutçu	Conrad	50%	~25 est	~$0.60M	🟡 Pending Conrad post-Jul'26	Largest single line
9	Yavuz Turan	Conrad	10%	~5 est	~$0.12M	🟡 Pending	Pro-rata Conrad
Conrad subtotal — Arda 40% · Erhan 50% · Yavuz 10% = 100%			60%	~30	~$0.72M	—	Partners electing exit
10	Gökhan Can	Bostancı	67%	Bidirectional	—	🟡 Strategic bundle w/ AGO	Scenario A: SRN buys 67% · Scenario B: Gökhan absorbs SRN's 33%
11	Baran (Arda nominee)	Bostancı	16.5% under Arda's 33%	0 (nominee)	0	🟡 Formal verify	Inside Arda's 33% per principal audio; formal record check pending
Bostancı subtotal — Arda 33% (incl. Baran 16.5% nominee) · Gökhan 67% = 100%			67%	—	—	—	Partners electing exit (excl. SRN residual)
12	—	Torba	100% (reconcile pending)	0	0	🟡 Reconcile	Principal audio says Arda 100%; org chart says 50% — verify current
13	—	BTC / BTA / MOI / Torium	Arda 100% each	0	0	✅ Clean	4 direct holdings, no partners
TOTAL CASH-OUT (mid-case if SRN buys ALL partners):				~108	~$2.57M	✓ Within band	$1.9M–$3.1M scenario band
NET (if Gökhan absorbs SRN's AGO + Bostancı stakes):				~80	~$1.9M	✓	SRN focuses on remaining 10 venues

12 of 16 partner lines now verified vs earlier framework. Largest single buy-out line: Erhan Bulutçu (Conrad 50%, ~₺25M). Bidirectional Gökhan bundle (AGO 36.5% + Bostancı 67%): either ≈ +₺28M cash inflow (Gökhan buys SRN out of both) or ≈ +₺28M outflow (SRN buys Gökhan out of both) — Phase 0 strategic call.

§ 02

Cross-check vs master Use of Proceeds

Tranche 1 close

$7–10M

Phase 1 consolidation

Cash injection (primary)

~$4.5–7.5M

~65–75% · into NewCo (CAPEX + HQ + WC)

Partner buy-out (secondary)

~$2.5M

~25–35% · mid-case if SRN buys all partners (per-partner table §01)

Equity dilution (T1 close)

~30–45%

$10–15M pre @ 4–6× current EBITDA

§ 03

Use of Proceeds breakdown

Line	Low (₺M)	Mid (₺M)	High (₺M)	Mid (USD @ ₺42)	Note
Buyouts (secondary) 🟢	80	108	135	$2.57M	Verified cap table; Murat 20M + Conrad 30M + others; see §01
Phase 1 CAPEX (4 new venues) 🟢	38	38	38	$0.90M	VERIFIED Arda: HA 15 + MOI 3.5 + TO 3.5 + ZK 16 = 38M (much lower than est)
HQ + tech build (initial)	25	35	50	$0.83M	Booking platform + CRM + brand
WC + clean-up reserves	30	40	50	$0.95M	Audit + legal + tax clean-up
Phase 2 expansion (2027-2029, staged) 🔴	100	200	400	$4.76M	5-10 new venues at KPI gates; framework scenario
HQ scale + brand build (Phase 2) 🔴	30	60	110	$1.43M	National marketing + ops scale
TOTAL (₺M)	303	481	783	$11.4M mid	Range maps to $7-19M USD raise band

🟢 CAPEX line dramatically lower than first estimate (38M vs 60-75M assumed). 🟢 Buyout line slightly higher because Conrad partner (Erhan 50%) is biggest verified line. Mid-case total ~$11.4M USD; Tranche 1 $7-10M honest ask covers buyouts + Phase 1 CAPEX + HQ initial + WC. Tranche 2 funds Phase 2 expansion at KPI gates.

§ 04

Open data needs

Pending Arda — cap table reconciliation

MAYTS Others 22% — exit preferences per partner
Conrad — Erhan + Yavuz exit-window mechanics post-Jul'26
Bostancı — Baran nominee formal record vs informal status
Torba — reconcile principal audio (Arda 100%) vs prior org chart (50%)
Göktürk Padel — identity of other 50% under ASRN
Fabrika Padel — venue spec confirmed via Sheet (Bornova / İzmir · 8 indoor padel courts · opening Aug 2026); formal cap structure still pending
ODTÜ Ulus — pre-operational vs operating + open date

Strategic decisions (principal + advisor)

AGO Gökhan direction — SRN buys 36.5% out, or Gökhan buys SRN's 50%
Bostancı strategic — retain 33% (incl. nominee), buy up, or divest
Phase 0 stress-test on buy-out sequencing (İspahani most directly relevant — MAC seller-side mechanics)
Tranche 1 vs Tranche 2 split — current working: T1 $7–10M, T2 $5–10M; refine post-Phase-0