SRN · Racket Sports
Confidential · Phase 0 · Pre-formal advisory
SRN GRUP — Strategic Overview
Türkiye racket-sports consolidation · 14-site network · investor-ready HoldCo.
The Brief
Arda Saran is consolidating a multi-venue racket-sports portfolio — into Turkey's first investor-ready NewCo.
SRN GRUP is a 14-site racket-sports network already operating in market — 6 venues live, 6 opening 2026, 1 seasonal, 1 pre-operational. 2025 Site EBITDA ₺27.3M actual scales to 2028 stabilized run-rate ₺250.6M (~$5.97M @ ₺42). All numbers monthly-derived from principal direct intake; INTEGRITY guard active on every line. 🟢
Investor capital enters at HoldCo level. Tranche 1 funds: partner buy-outs (Murat MAYTS ₺20-21M pre-Haliç anchor) · 5-yr growth CAPEX ₺88M (mostly 2026 opening-year) · HQ + national tech/booking platform · NewCo Ltd→A.Ş. conversion (~6-8 weeks).
One reconciliation note: MOI + Torium currently held Arda direct (outside SRN GRUP) — to be transferred pre-close.
Investor capital enters at HoldCo level. Tranche 1 funds: partner buy-outs (Murat MAYTS ₺20-21M pre-Haliç anchor) · 5-yr growth CAPEX ₺88M (mostly 2026 opening-year) · HQ + national tech/booking platform · NewCo Ltd→A.Ş. conversion (~6-8 weeks).
One reconciliation note: MOI + Torium currently held Arda direct (outside SRN GRUP) — to be transferred pre-close.
Why this principal: Arda Saran combines decorated junior tennis credentials (Türkiye U10–U18 titles), sport entrepreneurship (founded Business Tennis Cup + EveryThink), and proven multi-venue operating depth — a hard-to-replicate triple-stack. MAC Group's $431.6M exit to Benefit Systems (May 2025, ~8× disclosed) was built on the same logic: category-specific founder authority drives strategic exit value. Realistic exit lanes: Turkish PE secondary · Benefit-style cross-border strategic · Doğuş-style local strategic (D-Marin precedent). Global academy partnerships (Mouratoglou / IMG / Nadal) are upside optionality, not anchor.
§ 01
Live position
Live from monthly grid SoT · INTEGRITY 🟢2028 Stabilized run-rate (Dec × 12)
₺250.6M
🟢 Monthly-derived · INTEGRITY 🟢
USD-equivalent @ live FX
~$5.97M
@ ₺42 / USD
SRN Pre-money · 4–6× current (conservative)
$10–15M
🟠 Scale-discounted from MAC 8× anchor · sensitivity → Modeling tab
Tranche 1 Ask · for ~30–45% post-money
$7–10M
🟠 Conservative · T2 ($5–10M, KPI-gated) for ~$15–25M total over 18–24mo
Network revenue 2026B
₺196.6M
🟢 Monthly-derived · 6× growth from 2024 (₺32M)
5-yr CAPEX (2024-2028)
₺88.2M
🟢 Mostly opening-year · ₺68.5M in 2026
§ 02
The Thesis
Founder-operator combination + structural advantages — category-specific, not derivativeFounder authority
- Decorated junior tennis player — Türkiye U10–U18 titles, tennis from age 4
- Sport entrepreneur — founded Business Tennis Cup (Türkiye's first inter-company tournament) + EveryThink events
- Multi-venue operator running real EBITDA today across 14 sites + 3 sub-entities
- Athletic credibility + entrepreneurship + operating depth = hard-to-replicate triple-stack
Proven, not modeled
- 14 active sites: 3 sub-entities (MAYTS · AGO · ASRN) + 6 direct SRN GRUP holdings + 2 Arda direct (MOI · Torium pre-close transfer)
- 2025 Site EBITDA ₺27.3M actual · 2026B ₺90.4M · 2028 stabilized run-rate ₺250.6M (~$5.97M)
- Network revenue 6× growth: ₺32M (2024) → ₺197M (2026B) → ₺482M (2028B)
- All numbers monthly-derived from principal direct intake. MAC Group's 44.6% disclosed EBITDA margin = Turkish leisure reference point.
First-mover white space
- No dedicated PE-backed Turkish racket-sports consolidator exists today
- Padel + tennis Turkey ~3–5 years behind Spain / Nordics participation curve
- First-mover position in a fragmented category
- National federation alignment (TTF + Padel TR) → institutional access
Real estate & cluster moat
- 3 metro clusters (İstanbul / Ankara / İzmir) + 1 tourism cluster (Antalya / Bodrum / İzmir)
- Long leases + freehold mix; rent + interest < 22% revenue cap
- Each locked-in venue raises competitor entry cost
- EUR-linked tourism revenue = natural FX hedge against TRY depreciation
Tech-as-multiplier
- National booking + membership platform from day one
- Dynamic pricing, CRM, court utilization analytics
- Multiple-expansion lever: sports-tech adjacency (TrackMan-style margin profile on the SaaS slice)
- Elevates SRN from a multi-venue operator to a national racket-sports OS
Exit-lane optionality
- Turkish PE → strategic (MAC blueprint): proven, ~8× disclosed
- Cross-border strategic (Benefit Systems pattern): corporate-pass distribution synergy
- Global academy operators (Mouratoglou / IMG / Rafa Nadal): upside optionality — partnership/licensing models, treat as optional not anchor
- Gulf SWF / pan-EMEA PE: scale + region premium 8–11×
Every numeric claim traces to
02_DataRoom/valuation_research/sources_ledger.md (3-source test, confidence-labeled). Updated 2026-05-24.The Numbers · Monthly grid SoT
Revenue · OPEX · EBITDA · CAPEX — grounded business view before valuation.
14-site network · 5-year P&L · principal direct intake. Every cell traces to Arda's monthly entries in the operating model (
What this section grounds: the valuation arguments in the next panel (entry @ 4–6× current · stabilized @ 7.5–9× post-cleanup · MAC 8× anchor) rest on these numbers. Every multiple builds on the EBITDA shown here.
30_PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY); 12_INTEGRITY guard validates per-venue annual P&L matches monthly sum (Section A all 🟢). Unit economics block drives forward-looking projections from court count × hourly rate × occupancy × open hours.
What this section grounds: the valuation arguments in the next panel (entry @ 4–6× current · stabilized @ 7.5–9× post-cleanup · MAC 8× anchor) rest on these numbers. Every multiple builds on the EBITDA shown here.
§ 01
Group Income Statement (5-year, ₺M)
Source: 30_PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY rows 13–17 · INTEGRITY 🟢| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026B | 2027B | 2028B | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Network Revenue (₺M) | 32.0 | 57.3 | 196.6 | 384.8 | 481.9 | TL only · no FX exposure |
| (-) Site OPEX (₺M) | (12.5) | (29.9) | (106.2) | (187.7) | (215.4) | Rent + staff + utilities + COGS |
| = Site EBITDA (₺M) | 19.5 | 27.3 | 90.4 | 197.1 | 266.4 | Sum of 14-site EBITDA |
| Site EBITDA margin | 60.9% | 47.7% | 46.0% | 51.2% | 55.3% | Maturity ramp |
| (-) HQ Central costs (₺M) | — | — | (8.6) | — | — | CEO + Ofis + Muhasebe; 5 cats pending Arda |
| = Group EBITDA (₺M) | 19.5 | 27.3 | 81.8 | 197.1 | 266.4 | Site EBITDA − HQ |
| Y-o-Y growth | — | 40% | +199% | +141% | +35% | Inflection at 2026 openings |
| Group EBITDA ($M @ FX 42) | $0.46 | $0.65 | $1.95 | $4.69 | $6.34 | USD-equivalent |
Methodology: All values monthly-derived from Arda direct intake in
30_PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY. Per-venue 4X tabs (40_AT_Atasehir … 4C_TO_Torium) annual TOPLAM cells = monthly SUM via formula; 12_INTEGRITY tab guards identity (Section A all 🟢). HQ costs from 22_HQ_COSTS monthly skeleton (33_HQ_MONTHLY) — 5 of 9 categories filled.
§ 02
Per-Site EBITDA Detail (₺M, 5-year)
14 active sites · monthly-derived| Code | Venue | Status | 2024 | 2025 | 2026B | 2027B | 2028B | Lease (mo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT | Ataşehir Sporium | Operating | 6.3 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 16.7 | 23.8 | 60 |
| BI | Bizimtepe (Robert Kolej) | Operating | 6.7 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 17.3 | 60 |
| AK | Akatlar Sporium (AGO) | Operating | 3.8 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 16.4 | 26.2 | 60 |
| CR | Conrad | Jul'26 expansion | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 18.1 | 60 |
| HA | Haliç Üniversitesi Padel | Opens Sep'26 | — | — | 5.9 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 120 |
| BS | Bostancı Sporium | Opens 2026 | — | — | 21.6 | 41.2 | 70.1 | 120 |
| FB | Fabrika Padel (Bornova) | Opens Aug'26 | — | — | 19.5 | 46.8 | 46.8 | 60 |
| ZK | Zekeriyaköy | Opens Sep'26 | — | — | — | 19.5 | 19.5 | 120 |
| MOI | Mall of Istanbul AVM | Opens Jul'26 | — | — | 1.6 | 8.9 | 17.0 | 60 |
| TO | Torium AVM | Opens Jul'26 | — | — | 1.3 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 120 |
| BTC | Business Tennis Cup | Operating B2B | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | — | — | 120 |
| BTA | Business Tennis Academy | Operating B2B | — | 0.4 | 0.9 | — | — | 120 |
| TB | Torba Bodrum | Seasonal | — | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 60 |
| OD | ODTÜ Ulus | Pre-op | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TOTAL Site EBITDA (₺M) | 19.5 | 27.3 | 90.4 | 197.1 | 266.4 | — | ||
Concentration (2026B): Top-3 = 59% · Top-5 = 78% · Largest single = Bostancı ₺21.6M (first-year ramp — flagged in Overview Red Flags). Operating venues 2025 EBITDA: ₺27.3M actual baseline.
§ 03
Unit Economics — venue drivers
Source: 20_VENUE_MASTER · used by monthly grid formulas| Code | Venue | Sport | Courts | Padel ₺/hr (P/O) | Tenis ₺/hr (P/O) | Doluluk % (P/O) | EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT | Ataşehir Sporium | Tenis | 4 | — | 2250 / 2250 | 99% / 70% | 45% |
| BI | Bizimtepe (Robert Kolej) | Tenis | 4 | — | 2250 / 2250 | 99% / 65% | 45% |
| AK | Akatlar Sporium | Tenis | 4 | — | 1500 / 800 | 100% / 80% | 45% |
| CR | Conrad | Mixed | 4 | 2500 / 2200 | 2000 / 2000 | 99% / 50% | 50% |
| HA | Haliç Üniversitesi | Mixed | 4 | 2400 / 1850 | 2250 / 1900 | 90% / 50% | 50% |
| BS | Bostancı Sporium | Padel | 4 | 2600 / 2600 | — | 100% / 70% | 55% |
| FB | Fabrika Padel (Bornova) | Padel | 8 | 2500 / 2200 | — | 95% / 60% | 55% |
| ZK | Zekeriyaköy | Mixed | 4 | 2500 / 2100 | 2000 / 2000 | 90% / 60% | 50% |
| MOI | Mall of Istanbul AVM | Padel | 2 | 2250 / 1800 | — | 90% / 60% | 55% |
| TO | Torium AVM | Padel | 3 | 1800 / 1400 | 1250 / 1250 | 60% / 20% | 55% |
| TB | Torba Bodrum | Tenis (seasonal) | 2 | — | 1600 / 1600 | 70% / 30% | 45% |
Read: Padel-heavy venues (BS · FB · MOI · TO) carry 55% EBITDA margin; tennis-heavy (AT · BI · AK) at 45%; mixed (HA · ZK · CR) at 50%. Pricing power asymmetry: Bostancı (₺2600 flat) is the price-leader padel venue · Akatlar (₺800 off-peak) is the lowest pricing point. Driver math: courts × peak ₺ × peak hrs × peak doluluk + off-peak equivalent × open days × 12mo. Assumption block (X22:Y25 of VENUE_MASTER): Peak hrs/day=8 · Off-peak/day=8 · Days/mo=30 · FX=42.
§ 04
CAPEX Schedule (5-year, monthly-derived)
Source: 21_CAPEX · PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY rows 23/27/.../71| Venue | Code | SRN % | 2025 (₺M) | 2026 (₺M) | Total (₺M) | SRN Payı (₺M) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akatlar Sporium (AGO) | AK | 50% | 2.0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 6.25 | Operating venue ongoing CAPEX (Jan'25–May'26) |
| Bostancı Sporium | BS | 16.5% | 17.0 | — | 17.0 | 2.81 | Opening 2026 prep (Jul–Sep'25) |
| Torba Bodrum | TB | 50% | 0.7 | — | 0.7 | 0.35 | Seasonal operational |
| Haliç Üniversitesi | HA | 39.5% | — | 16.0 | 16.0 | 6.32 | Opening Sep'26 (CAPEX May–Jul'26) |
| Zekeriyaköy | ZK | 25% | — | 15.0 | 15.0 | 3.75 | Opening Sep'26 (CAPEX Apr–Dec'26) |
| Conrad expansion | CR | 40% | — | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.64 | Jul'26 expansion (CAPEX Apr–Jun'26) |
| Fabrika Padel (Bornova) | FB | 35% | — | 16.0 | 16.0 | 5.58 | Opening Aug'26 (CAPEX Apr–Jul'26) |
| Mall of Istanbul AVM | MOI | 0%* | — | 3.5 | 3.5 | — | *Arda direct, transfer to SRN pre-close |
| Torium AVM | TO | 0%* | — | 3.5 | 3.5 | — | *Arda direct, transfer to SRN pre-close |
| TOPLAM | 19.7 | 68.5 | 88.2 | 26.7 | ~$636K SRN cash @ FX 42 | ||
Read: 5-yr gross CAPEX ₺88.2M (₺19.7M in-flight 2025 + ₺68.5M opening-year 2026). SRN stake-weighted payı ₺26.7M (~$636K) reflects actual SRN cash-out after co-investor share (per CAP_TABLE effective stakes). Funding model TBD — Haliç Serkan Demirel financing decision pending. Critical: MOI + Torium currently Arda direct; SRN's effective payı becomes ₺7M if transferred pre-close.
§ 05
Three EBITDA Concepts
Different angles on the same monthly grid| Concept | 2024 | 2025 | 2026B | 2027B | 2028B | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Calendar-year (time-weighted) | 19.5 | 27.3 | 90.4 | 197.1 | 266.4 | Sum of 12 months · what actually books |
| 2. Year-end run-rate (Dec × 12) | 26.6 | 35.3 | 175.5 | 249.0 | 250.6 | Annualizing Dec earnings power |
| 3. Full-year stabilized (2028 Dec × 12) | 250.6 | 250.6 | 250.6 | 250.6 | 250.6 | Reference: all venues stable |
| ↳ USD ($M @ FX 42) | $5.97 | $5.97 | $5.97 | $5.97 | $5.97 | Stabilized USD reference |
Why three: Calendar shows actual booking; Run-rate shows late-year momentum (mid-year openings make this much larger than calendar); Stabilized = single reference for valuation conversation. For valuation: 2028 stabilized ₺250.6M × MAC 8× = ₺2.0B / $48M implied SRN EV at full maturity (pre cap-structure adjustment). Sensitivity in Modeling tab.
§ 06
Data Integrity
SoT chain · auditable lineage · INTEGRITY 🟢Source-of-truth chain
- 20_VENUE_MASTER — venue config + unit econ drivers (Arda direct)
- 30_PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY — 60-month grid (Arda direct + formulas)
- ↓ All downstream tabs (P&L, CAPEX, HQ, dashboards) reference monthly via SUM formulas
- 12_INTEGRITY — Section A guards mechanical identity (TOPLAM = monthly SUM)
- Rule: "When intake disagrees with monthly, monthly wins. Latest entered = correct." (Ali, 2026-05-23)
What's verified vs pending
- 🟢 All revenue / OPEX / EBITDA / CAPEX cells monthly-derived
- 🟢 14-site network structure verified (Arda voice 2026-05-23)
- 🟢 MAYTS · AGO · ASRN sub-entity structure verified
- 🟢 Murat MAYTS exit anchor ₺20-21M pre-Haliç
- 🟠 HQ remaining 5 cost categories pending (Hukuk · BT · SaaS · Pazarlama · Seyahat · Diğer)
- 🔴 Cap reconciliation pending: Bostancı 83.5% · Conrad 60% · Torba 50% partner %'leri
What this enables
- Any number on this cockpit traces back to monthly entry (audit lineage)
- Live refresh: Arda changes monthly grid → all panels reflect new state
- 3-source verification test on every claim (per
sources_ledger.md) - Valuation arguments in next panel anchored on these verified numbers
- Phase 0 stress-test reviewers can drill into any cell
SRN Valuation · grounded in monthly EBITDA
From Phase 1 entry to stabilized exit — each tier multiplies SRN's actual EBITDA, not a theoretical framework.
This is SRN's valuation arithmetic, not a generic framework. Every implied EV below uses one of three EBITDA inputs from the prior Financials panel (2026B Site EBITDA ₺90.4M · 2028 Dec run-rate ₺250.6M · 2028 stabilized ₺250.6M) multiplied by a tier-appropriate multiple anchored on the MAC Group disclosed exit.
The trajectory: investor enters at Phase 1 pricing (4–6× current EBITDA, scale-discounted from MAC's 8× exit) and rides through three re-ratings as SRN consolidates, formalizes, and matures. The path is the MAC playbook applied to racket-sports.
The trajectory: investor enters at Phase 1 pricing (4–6× current EBITDA, scale-discounted from MAC's 8× exit) and rides through three re-ratings as SRN consolidates, formalizes, and matures. The path is the MAC playbook applied to racket-sports.
§ 01
SRN Valuation Trajectory — 4 stages
Every row: actual SRN EBITDA × tier multiple = implied EV| Stage | When | EBITDA basis (₺M) | Multiple | Implied EV (₺M) | Implied EV ($M) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-investment | 2025 | ₺27.3M Site (operating venues only, actual) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Pre-consolidation; no formal valuation event |
| Phase 1 Entry Tranche 1 close | 2026 Q1–Q2 | ₺90.4M 2026B Site EBITDA | 4–6× | ₺361–542M | $8.6–12.9M | Scale-discounted from MAC 8× · pre-cleanup · pre-A.Ş. |
| Phase 2 Entry 12–18mo KPI-gated | 2027 H1 | ₺175.5M 2026 Dec×12 run-rate proxy | 6–8× | ₺1.05–1.40B | $25–33M | Post-consolidation re-rate · execution proof |
| 2028 Stabilized Mid-cycle reference | 2028 year-end | ₺250.6M run-rate (Dec × 12) | 7.5–9× | ₺1.88–2.26B | $45–54M | Post-cleanup · audit · governance · brand → MAC peer |
| Strategic Exit 2032–2035 target | 3–5 years out | TBD (Phase 2+3 expansion · 25+ venues) | 8–11× | framework | framework | Pan-EMEA strategic · Gulf SWF · global academy |
How to read: Phase 1 entry pricing ($8.6–12.9M pre-money) matches the Overview anchor ($10–15M). The trajectory from $8.6M → $45M+ over 2.5 years is the consolidation thesis. Sensitivity sliders in Modeling tab let you re-price any cell.
§ 02
MAC Group anchor — why ~8× is THE comp 🟢 Disclosed
Benefit Systems S.A. acquired 100% of Mars Spor Kulübü ve Tesisleri A.Ş. from Actera + Esas Holding (via Lux SPVs) on 7 May 2025. The only disclosed Turkish primary-source comp in racket-adjacent leisure.
Total close
$431.6M
$420M base + 7% accrual + LB
2024 Revenue
$112M
PLN 446M disclosed
2024 EBITDA
$50M
44.6% margin · excl. IFRS16
EV / EBITDA
~8×
7.8–8.6× band → SRN anchor
Sites
121
80 İST · 14 ANK · 9 İZM
Hold period
15 yr
2010 entry → 2025 exit
SRN parallel: same consortium pattern (founder-led consumer roll-up → strategic exit), racket-sports category instead of fitness. SRN's 2028 stabilized scale (₺250.6M EBITDA, 14+ sites) reaches MAC's pre-2020 inflection point.
↗ RB 14/2025 signing ↗ Paksoy (sell-side)
↗ RB 14/2025 signing ↗ Paksoy (sell-side)
§ 03
Why SRN enters at 4–6× (not 8×) — the discount stack
Turkey + scale + informality discounts · all reclaimableWhat MAC has that SRN doesn't (yet)
- Scale: 121 sites vs SRN 14 → mild discount
- Track record: 15-year operating history + audited financials
- Formalization: A.Ş. corporate form · institutional governance
- Brand architecture: Multi-tier (MACFit + MAC One + Studio + Nuspa)
- Strategic optionality: Cross-border buyer (Benefit Systems pattern)
How SRN closes the gap (3-year roadmap)
- Year 1: Phase 1 raise · NewCo Ltd→A.Ş. · audit · cap-table cleanup
- Year 2: 6 venue openings prove ramp · brand build · 2027B EBITDA ₺197M
- Year 3: Stabilization · cross-border buyer relationships warmed · 2028 stabilized ₺250M
- Result: 4–6× entry → 7.5–9× exit · re-rate captures cleanup + scale value
§ 04
Multiple build-down: EU baseline → SRN entry → MAC exit
Damodaran Feb 2026: Turkey ERP 8.89% (rating) / 8.56% (CDS)USD EV/EBITDA, mid-point of each range. Hover bars for context.
§ 05
Peer reference points
Sanity-check the SRN trajectory against adjacent sectors★ MAC Group (May 2025) 🟢
~8×
$431.6M / $50M EBITDA · SRN anchor
EU stable multi-site leisure 🟡
8–11×
Gyms, experiential, bowling · SRN's 2028 stabilized target
UAE padel chains 🟡
8–11×
10–20 court portfolios · regional exit reference
Turkey ERP (Damodaran Feb 2026) 🟢
8.5–10.9%
USD; explains SRN entry discount
Turkish B2C consumer PE 🟡
5–8×
SRN Phase 1–2 entry band
IMG Academy (outlier) 🟢
~31×
$1.25B / EQT 2023 · global academy upside · NOT anchor
§ 06
MAC playbook → SRN parallel 🟢
MAC's 15-year arc as SRN's execution template| MAC milestone | Year | SRN parallel |
|---|---|---|
| Mars Entertainment founded (Yıldırım + Utku) | 2001 | — |
| Mars Spor (gym OpCo) carved into MAC brand | 2007 | 2024 — pre-consolidation founder operator |
| MENA Capital exits; Actera + Esas take ownership 🟢 | Sept 2010 | 2026–27 — SRN Phase 1 + 2 raise ($15–25M total) |
| Cinema-side exit to CJ CGV $800M total 🟢 | Jun 2016 | Could equal partial monetization / strategic JV milestone |
| Multi-brand architecture (MACFit + MAC One + Studio + Nuspa) | 2010–24 | Years 3–7: padel + tennis + premium + boutique tier |
| Strategic exit — Benefit Systems $431.6M / ~8× 🟢 | May 2025 | 2032–2035 — SRN strategic exit (global academy / pan-EMEA / Benefit-style) |
The MAC arc gives SRN both the multiple anchor (~8×) and the operational template (founder-led roll-up · staged PE entries · multi-tier brand · cross-border exit). SRN's racket-sports category has no direct Turkish precedent — MAC is the closest structural analog.
§ 01
Named M&A / growth-equity deals — confidence-labeled
Each row tagged with confidence tier. 🟢 means primary source confirms. 🟡 means trade-press/banker. 🟠 means inferred. Sources in
10_comparables/ and sources_ledger.md.
§ 01
Investor outreach tracker
Internal · status saved to browser · — entriesOperator/advisor tracker for Wave-1/2/3 prioritization. Status changes saved automatically to your browser. Notes editable inline. Confidence chips on each row.
— shown
| Wave | Name | Type | Ticket | Fit | Pitch angle | Status | Notes |
|---|
§ 01
Validation sources — Phase 0 stress-testers
Internal · advisory consultation pre-formal-processThree trusted reviewers with directly relevant deal experience. Their feedback recalibrates the framework, pitch, and investor fit before anything formal goes out.
Ali İspahani
Ex-Actera · MAC deal insider
Direct seller-side insight into the MAC Group / MACFit deal ($420M / ~8× to Benefit Systems, May 2025). Actera was beneficial co-seller via the Luxembourg SPVs. Ali İspahani has 15-year visibility into how the Esas/Actera consortium ran the platform from 2010 entry to 2025 exit.
Ask: Validation of MAC as anchor comp; seller-side dynamics; what the buyer paid up for vs the discount stack; how Turkish PE thinks about exit multiples post-clean-up.
Sercan Çelebi
Türkven / Enocta sell-side advisor · Ex-Enocta CEO
Dual perspective: Sell-side advisor on Türkven's Enocta exit (later acquired by Bain), then served as Enocta CEO post-acquisition. Both M&A process insight + operator reality.
Ask: Türkven's mid-market consumer thesis; how to structure governance for PE entry; post-PE operator experience — what surprised Enocta operationally.
Didem Anıl
CEECAT Capital
CEECAT Fund III insider. CEECAT Fund III has €40M EBRD commitment + €200M target, mandates growth-stage Türkiye + CEE mid-market consumer/services. Direct line on whether SRN is on their actual sourcing radar.
Ask: SRN fit with CEECAT mandate; what they need to see in a teaser; warm intros into other CEE+TR PE.
Sequencing: Phase 0 over 1–2 weeks → recalibrate artifacts → Phase 1 (Mediterra, IDA, İş Portföy, EBRD, Doğuş, Benefit Systems TR).
§ 01
EMEA case study lessons
6 success · 4 failure10 cases — 6 success, 4 failure. Click any card to expand. Apply-to-SRN tagline at the bottom of each.
§ 01
SRN sensitivity engine — implied EV calculator
Internal · operator/analyst what-if toolDefaults sourced from current DASHBOARD (2026-05-24) 🟢 Live. Sliders drive only the bands on this tab — the Overview headline anchor ($10–15M pre / $7–10M T1) is intentionally fixed.
Inputs
90.4
175.5
251
42.0
6.0x
8.0x
0%
Entry EV on 2026 Actual
$12.9 – $17.2M
90.4M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0 (no discount)
Entry EV on 2026 Run-rate ← primary anchor
$25.1 – $33.4M
175.5M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0 (no discount)
2028 Stabilized EV (pre-DCF discount)
$35.9 – $47.8M
251M TRY × 6.0–8.0x ÷ 42.0
2028 EV @ MAC band (7.5–8.5×)
$44.8 – $50.8M
251M TRY × 7.5–8.5x ÷ 42.0; anchored on MAC ~8x
All three EBITDA values are monthly-derived from VENUE_MASTER drivers. Calendar = sum of 12 months · Run-rate = Dec × 12 · Stabilized = 2028 Dec × 12. Multipliers reflect MAC anchor band (~8× ± scale-discount).
The Capital Plan · Cash Injection vs Cash-Out
How much we raise · How it's used · For what equity.
🟢 Numbers anchored on monthly-derived EBITDA + verified cap structure (Arda voice 2026-05-23). Phase 0 stress-test (İspahani / Çelebi / Anıl) may move valuation band; cap structure has 3 reconciliation gaps still pending (Bostancı · Conrad · Torba partner %'leri).
$7–10M Tranche 1 close · ~30–45% post-money equity in SRN GRUP NewCo @ $10–15M pre-money (4–6× current EBITDA, scale-discounted from MAC 8× anchor). Tranche 2 ($5–10M, 12–18mo KPI-gated): Phase 2 expansion at 6–8× post-consolidation. Total Phase 1+2: $15–25M over 18–24 months.
Cash injection (primary, ~$4.5–7.5M of Tranche 1) — new shares → into NewCo: Growth CAPEX for 6 venues opening 2026 (₺68.5M gross / ₺26.7M SRN stake-weighted payı), HQ + national tech/booking platform, brand + national marketing, WC + clean-up reserves.
Partner buy-out (secondary, ~$2.0–2.6M of Tranche 1) — existing shares bought from partners electing exit. Anchor line: Murat Zorluoğlu MAYTS 39% @ ₺20–21M pre-Haliç (Arda voice 2026-05-23). MAYTS Others 22%: Aslan + Aktuna + Demirel ~₺13M pro-rata @ ₺60M MAYTS EV. Conrad bundle: Erhan 50% + Yavuz 10% post-Jul'26 expansion = largest single line. AGO Gökhan 36.5%: bidirectional (₺17M out or ₺17M in). Cap reconciliation pending: Bostancı other 83.5%, Conrad detail, Torba Fadi assumption. Per-partner detail in §01 below.
Cash injection (primary, ~$4.5–7.5M of Tranche 1) — new shares → into NewCo: Growth CAPEX for 6 venues opening 2026 (₺68.5M gross / ₺26.7M SRN stake-weighted payı), HQ + national tech/booking platform, brand + national marketing, WC + clean-up reserves.
Partner buy-out (secondary, ~$2.0–2.6M of Tranche 1) — existing shares bought from partners electing exit. Anchor line: Murat Zorluoğlu MAYTS 39% @ ₺20–21M pre-Haliç (Arda voice 2026-05-23). MAYTS Others 22%: Aslan + Aktuna + Demirel ~₺13M pro-rata @ ₺60M MAYTS EV. Conrad bundle: Erhan 50% + Yavuz 10% post-Jul'26 expansion = largest single line. AGO Gökhan 36.5%: bidirectional (₺17M out or ₺17M in). Cap reconciliation pending: Bostancı other 83.5%, Conrad detail, Torba Fadi assumption. Per-partner detail in §01 below.
§ 01
Per-partner buyout offers
Cross-checked against master Use of Proceeds + valuation frameworkAuthoritative cap structure:
02_DataRoom/Entities/SRN_org_chart_2026-05-19.md. Sheet sync: BUYOUT_OFFERS tab.| # | Partner | Entity | Stake | Offer (₺M) | USD @ ₺42 | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murat Zorluoğlu | MAYTS | 39% | 20–21 | $0.48–0.50M | 🟢 Anchor verified | Arda voice 2026-05-23: pre-Haliç floor; higher post-Haliç |
| 2 | Murat Aslan | MAYTS | 15% | ~9.0 est | ~$0.21M | 🟡 Pro-rata | ₺60M MAYTS EV × 15% |
| 3 | Tuna Aktuna | MAYTS | 5% | ~3.0 est | ~$0.07M | 🟡 Pro-rata | ₺60M MAYTS EV × 5% |
| 4 | Serkan Demirel | MAYTS | 2% | ~1.2 est | ~$0.03M | 🟡 Haliç decision pending | Pending Arda + Serkan, next week |
| MAYTS subtotal · SRN 39.5% residual · Others 60.5% | 60.5% | ~33–34 | ~$0.79M | — | Partners electing exit | ||
| 5 | Olivier Van Neste | AGO | 14% | ~6.7 est | ~$0.16M | 🟡 Pro-rata | ₺47.5M AGO EV mid × 14% |
| 6 | Gökhan Can | AGO | 36.5% | Bidirectional | — | 🟡 Strategic | SRN buys ≈ ₺17M out · OR Gökhan buys SRN's 50% ≈ ₺24M in |
| AGO subtotal · SRN 50% · Others 50% | 50% | — | — | — | Partners electing exit (excl. SRN residual) | ||
| 7 | Sami Beceren | ASRN | 50% | TBD | — | 🟠 EBITDA ramping | ZK opening 2026-09; entity EV pending real numbers |
| ASRN subtotal · SRN 50% · Sami 50% | 50% | TBD | — | — | Defer to post-2026 EBITDA | ||
| 8 | Erhan Bulutçu | Conrad | 50% | ~25 est | ~$0.60M | 🟠 Largest single line | Post-Jul'26 expansion (largest CAPEX line ₺4.1M) |
| 9 | Yavuz Turan | Conrad | 10% | ~5 est | ~$0.12M | 🟡 Pro-rata | Pro-rata Conrad post-expansion |
| Conrad subtotal · SRN 40% · Others 60% | 60% | ~30 | ~$0.71M | — | Partners electing exit | ||
| 10 | Saffet Sarıçan | Bostancı | ? | TBD | — | 🔴 Reconcile | Gentleman's agreement, undocumented (Arda pending) |
| 11 | Baran / Gökhan | Bostancı | ? | TBD | — | 🔴 Reconcile | Other 83.5% split unverified (Arda pending) |
| Bostancı subtotal · SRN 16.5% · Others 83.5% | 83.5% | TBD | — | — | Partner % composition pending Arda | ||
| 12 | Kar İnşaat | Fabrika Padel | 35% | TBD | — | 🟡 Verified partner | Arda voice 2026-05-23: confirmed Fabrika partner structure |
| 13 | Baran (Fabrika) | Fabrika Padel | 30% | TBD | — | 🟡 Verified partner | Different person from Bostancı nominee |
| Fabrika subtotal · SRN 35% · Kar 35% + Baran 30% = 65% | 65% | TBD | — | — | Defer until FB operating data | ||
| 14 | Fadi? | Torba Bodrum | 50%? | TBD | — | 🔴 Reconcile | Fadi assumption unverified — Arda pending |
| 15 | — | BTC / BTA | SRN GRUP 100% | 0 | 0 | ✅ Clean | B2B direct holdings under SRN GRUP |
| 16 | — | MOI / Torium | Arda 100% | 0 | 0 | ⚠ Transfer pre-close | Arda direct, transfer to SRN GRUP pre-close |
| TOTAL CASH-OUT (mid-case, SRN buys priced partners only): | ~88–95 | ~$2.10–2.26M | ✓ Within T1 band | Murat + MAYTS Others + Olivier + Conrad bundle; ASRN/Bostancı/Fabrika/Torba deferred | |||
| NET (if Gökhan absorbs SRN's AGO 50%): | ~70–78 | ~$1.67–1.86M | ✓ | SRN focuses Conrad+MAYTS+others; nets ₺17M cash inflow from Gökhan | |||
9 of 14 partner lines have firm numbers (Murat + MAYTS Others + Olivier + Conrad bundle). 5 deferred (ASRN ramping · Bostancı reconciliation · Fabrika partners · Torba Fadi). Largest single line: Erhan Bulutçu (Conrad 50%, ~₺25M). Bidirectional Gökhan (AGO 36.5%): either ₺17M outflow (SRN buys) or ₺17M inflow (Gökhan buys SRN's 50%) — Phase 0 strategic call.
§ 02
Cross-check vs master Use of Proceeds
Tranche 1 close
$7–10M
Phase 1 consolidation
Cash injection (primary)
~$4.5–7.5M
~65–75% · into NewCo (CAPEX + HQ + WC)
Partner buy-out (secondary)
~$2.0–2.3M
~25–30% · mid-case priced partners only (§01); ASRN/Bostancı/Fabrika deferred
Equity dilution (T1 close)
~30–45%
$10–15M pre @ 4–6× 2026B Site EBITDA ($2.15M)
§ 03
Use of Proceeds breakdown
| Line | Low (₺M) | Mid (₺M) | High (₺M) | Mid (USD @ ₺42) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyouts (secondary) 🟢 | 70 | 88 | 108 | $2.10M | Priced partners: Murat 20–21 + MAYTS Others ~13 + Olivier ~7 + Conrad bundle ~30; ASRN/Bostancı/Fabrika deferred (§01) |
| Growth CAPEX 2026 (gross, 7 venues) 🟢 | 68.5 | 68.5 | 68.5 | $1.63M | HA 16 + AK 10.5 (follow-on) + ZK 15 + CR 4.1 + FB 16 + MOI 3.5 + TO 3.5 = ₺68.5M monthly-derived |
| Growth CAPEX 2025 in-flight 🟢 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | $0.47M | BS 17 + AK 2 + TB 0.7 = ₺19.7M already in motion |
| ↳ SRN stake-weighted CAPEX payı 🟢 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.7 | $0.64M | 5-yr SRN cash-out post co-investor share (CAP_TABLE %'leri) |
| HQ + national tech build (initial) | 25 | 35 | 50 | $0.83M | Booking platform + CRM + brand + 5 HQ cost cats (Arda pending Hukuk/BT/SaaS/Pazarlama/Seyahat/Diğer) |
| NewCo Ltd→A.Ş. + WC + clean-up reserves | 30 | 40 | 50 | $0.95M | Conversion (~6-8 wks) + audit + legal + tax clean-up |
| Phase 1 subtotal (Tranche 1 frame) 🟢 | 213 | 251 | 296 | $5.98M mid | Maps to T1 $7–10M raise with healthy contingency |
| Phase 2 expansion CAPEX (2027–2029, KPI-gated) 🔴 | 100 | 200 | 400 | $4.76M | 5–10 new venues at KPI gates; framework scenario |
| Phase 2 HQ scale + brand build 🔴 | 30 | 60 | 110 | $1.43M | National marketing + ops scale |
| TOTAL Phase 1 + 2 (₺M) | 343 | 511 | 806 | $12.2M mid | Range maps to $7–19M USD raise band (T1 + T2 combined) |
🟢 CAPEX numbers monthly-derived from Arda direct intake (PROJECTIONS_MONTHLY rows 23/27/31/.../71). Tranche 1 $7–10M ≈ $5.98M Phase 1 mid + contingency. SRN stake-weighted payı ₺26.7M reflects actual SRN cash-out after partner co-investment — gross CAPEX is shown for investor optics. Phase 2 framework only — KPI-gated.
§ 04
Open data needs
Pending Arda — cap table reconciliation
- Bostancı 83.5% partner split — Saffet / Baran / Gökhan %'leri (🔴 reconciliation pending)
- Conrad 60% breakdown — Erhan 50% + Yavuz 10% confirmed; remainder?
- Torba Fadi 50% — assumption unverified by Arda (🔴 reconciliation pending)
- Haliç Serkan Demirel — financing decision next week (impacts MAYTS 2% buy-out timing)
- HQ remaining 5 cost categories — Hukuk / BT / SaaS / Pazarlama / Seyahat / Diğer (Arda voice asked 2026-05-23)
Strategic decisions (principal + advisor)
- AGO Gökhan direction — SRN buys 36.5% (~₺17M out) or Gökhan buys SRN's 50% (~₺17M in)
- Bostancı strategic — retain 33% (incl. nominee), buy up, or divest
- Phase 0 stress-test on buy-out sequencing (İspahani most directly relevant — MAC seller-side mechanics)
- Tranche 1 vs Tranche 2 split — current working: T1 $7–10M, T2 $5–10M; refine post-Phase-0